A ‘mandate’ to deliver: Who voted Labour and what do they want?

This is a huge turnaround from the position in which it found itself in 2019. The party achieved this by winning over voters from the Conservatives, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats in the seats that mattered most.

This has already kickstarted a debate about what kinds of policies these voters may (or may not) support and what they expect of a Labour government. To get at this, Persuasion UK and IPPR have undertaken a big new MRP poll – conducted via FocalData in the week of 1^st July - to provide an initial answer to this question. This ‘mega poll’ allows us to map opinion on key issues down to constituency level, as well as analysing the opinion of swing voters.

A consensus for change

The Labour party should feel confident about being bold on increasing investment now it is in government. A striking 99 per cent of Labour constituencies - and 98 per cent of seats that Labour has gained in the general election - have a majority or plurality of people who are supportive of more borrowing “provided that money were invested in the economy and public services”. Just 4 per cent of constituencies have a majority that support the opposing view. This finding suggests that there may be a window for the new government to be bolder on borrowing to invest, subject to meeting their fiscal rules. This is likely to be needed, given that the UK has the lowest investment in the G7 and studies show that this is strongly linked to the UK’s poor growth performance.

The government has strong support for the planning reforms it has put at the heart of its first week in office - but this won’t negate local backlash. Every UK constituency has more people supportive of housebuilding than oppositional to it, “even if it were built in their local area”. Nine out of 10 of the most ‘NIMBY’ constituencies are held by the Labour party, having all been won at the general election, but even in these places it is still a minority view. That does not mean the planning debate will be without challenge as those who support development are often not moved to actively support it, while the small minority who oppose it care sufficiently to organise against it through the planning system.

There is little evidence of a backlash against the Labour party’s climate agenda - though specific measures will require careful navigation. The view that “government policy on climate change should be going further and faster than it is right now” beats “government policy on climate change should be going slower than it is right now” in every constituency in the UK except two. The two exceptions are Clacton and Boston & Skegness, both held by Reform UK. This should give the government confidence that it has a mandate for its climate agenda which it put front and centre - and as a dividing line with the Conservatives - in the campaign.

The government has a mandate to pursue stronger labour rights through its 'New Deal for Working People'. Every constituency in the UK has a majority or plurality of people who believe workers’ rights should be strengthened. More than twice the number of people support this than don’t across the country. Among Labour voters, 72 per cent of Labour voters support this, including almost two-thirds (65 per cent) of Conservative to Labour switchers. This should give Labour confidence in pursuing its 'New Deal for Working People' agenda in the face of a small but vocal minority in the media who were attacking it during the campaign.

The government may also find that it has stronger support on moving closer to the EU going forward, even where this implies giving up some sovereignty. 84 per cent of Labour constituencies back closer economic ties with the EU, even at the cost of sovereignty. This is 76 per cent for those seats the Labour party gained in the 2024 election. Over two-thirds of Labour voters agree with this position including over half of Conservative to Labour switchers. This is part of a longer-term shift across the country - with a growing number of people believing that Brexit has done more harm than good. This should give the government confidence in pursuing closer ties with Europe going forward.

Navigating the tensions

The Labour party’s voter base is divided on the issue of tax. A small majority of Labour voters (55 per cent) and Conservative to Labour switchers (51 per cent) would pay more tax if the money was invested in public services. However, this looks less positive when looked at by constituency: only 33 per cent of constituencies have a plurality or majority of people saying they would pay more tax to fund public services. Meanwhile the majority in 63 per cent of seats hold the contrary view, although it’s very close in a lot of constituencies. This survey did not test support for specific tax measures that are likely to be more popular - including the taxes the government is proposing to raise including on energy companies and private schools - which are likely to garner much higher support.

Issues of culture and identity - especially immigration - divide the Labour Party’s electorate and will be challenging to navigate. Only 20 per cent of constituencies, and 22 per cent of Labour constituencies, have a majority or plurality view that ‘Immigration has enriched society’, with 80 per cent of seats holding the opposite view predominant. However, Labour voters in general within these constituencies incline to a pro-immigration view, albeit switchers from the Conservatives are more divided. Seats with a smaller Labour majority (especially those that are newly gained) have less explicitly pro-immigration attitudes. Similar patterns were found when we asked whether voters agreed ‘discrimination against white people has become as big a problem as discrimination against non-white people’.

Time to deliver

The Labour government will have a short ‘honeymoon period’ - but voters are impatient for change. The new government has hit the ground running with a flurry of early media interventions and announcements. Voters will give Labour some grace to deliver on these pledges but across most policy areas we find that Labour voters expect improvements within two to three years. These expectations are highest for the NHS, economic and the cost of living. The government has a strong mandate to deliver - with support particularly united on investment, house building, climate action and workers rights - but must make the most of the coming years when its political capital will be highest.