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On 27 March, the Scottish government will announce whether Scotland’s 2023 child poverty target – no more than 18 per cent of children in poverty – was achieved. 

While 2023 will be the first year we see the full impact of the 'game changing' Scottish Child Payment, there is widespread pessimism that the target will have been achieved. Child poverty is a tough nut to crack.

In this briefing we look forward to 2030 to assess what more will be needed to get the child poverty rate below the 10 per cent target. We anticipate Scottish social security policy will play an important role, and will keep child poverty levels well below the rest of the UK. But existing policies projected forward will still leave twice as many children in poverty as required by the target.