Citizenship: A race to the bottom?

A dangerous shift in citizenship policy

This progression provides individuals with security, fosters stronger communities as people establish their lives in the UK, and supports economic stability. A well-designed system, therefore, must ensure that people who have migrated to the UK – for work, family, study, or to flee persecution – have a clear and accessible route to secure their status. 

Yet, recent policy announcements by both the Conservatives and the Labour government have signalled a worrying shift away from this principle, risking instability and precarity for migrant communities. We argue that these changes reflect a reactive, short-term approach that will increase hardship, create administrative burdens, and ultimately fail to achieve their intended political or policy goals.

The conservative proposal: Extending the 10-year route

The Conservative plan, unveiled by Kemi Badenoch, proposes to extend the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) to 10 years for all migrants. Additionally, it would deny ILR to anyone who is not deemed to have made a "net contribution" through taxes and bar those arriving via small boats from ever obtaining ILR.

This policy would have severe consequences. It effectively rolls out the 10-year route to all migrants, a policy that IPPR research has shown increases poverty and legal precariousness. Many migrants would be forced to repeatedly renew their Limited Leave to Remain (LLR), at great financial and emotional cost, indefinitely. The requirement for migrants to prove they have paid more in tax than they have cost the state is a difficult metric to measure fairly and it would disproportionately impact lower-paid workers and families with children - particularly care workers, who perform roles that provide immense social value despite lower incomes. 

The policy appears designed to target recent arrivals, particularly the post-pandemic surge in health and care visa holders. In 2024, visas issued for health and care workers fell by 117,801 - an 81 per cent drop from 144,723 in 2023 to just 26,922. Despite this sharp decline, the proposal could still have significant consequences, affecting hundreds of thousands of migrants who remain on temporary status or seek long-term stability. Those who fail to meet the new ILR thresholds would be forced to remain on temporary visas indefinitely, increasing risks of becoming undocumented and losing legal status entirely.

IPPR’s research on the 10-year route has shown that it creates prolonged financial instability, increasing vulnerability to workplace exploitation and worsening housing insecurity. Families - many of whom include British citizen children - face long periods of legal and economic uncertainty, struggling under the weight of high visa renewal fees and insecure status. Extending this route to all migrants will deepen these problems, pushing more people into destitution and undermining integration.

Restricting ILR has far more immediate and severe consequences than restricting citizenship. While citizenship confers additional rights such as voting and full political participation, ILR provides the foundation for long-term stability - allowing people to live, work, and contribute without the constant threat of losing their legal status, while also granting access to a social safety net through recourse to public funds. Blocking ILR would push more people into an indefinite cycle of temporary status, increasing the likelihood of individuals falling out of status altogether. This would not only cause greater hardship for affected migrants and their families but also significantly expand the undocumented population, creating an enforcement and administrative burden that the Home Office is ill-equipped to manage.

Labour’s response: A worrying misstep

Labour’s response has been to quietly implement a significant policy change, updating Home Office caseworker guidance to permanently bar those who arrive irregularly from ever acquiring British citizenship. This move appears to be a reaction to Conservative criticisms of Labour’s repeal of the Illegal Migration Act’s citizenship restrictions, but it raises serious concerns.

By reinstating citizenship restrictions through caseworker guidance, Labour has contradicted its own repeal of similar provisions in the Illegal Migration Act, sending mixed signals about its strategic direction. There is no evidence that punitive citizenship restrictions prevent irregular migration. Indeed, these citizenship restrictions are unlikely to impact arrival numbers, as they take effect only after people have sought asylum and established their lives in the UK. Instead of deterring migration, they create long-term exclusion and insecurity for those already settled. 

This approach satisfies no one. To progressive voters, it appears unnecessarily cruel. To those considering voting for Reform, it does not go far enough. Courting voters who are most sceptical about immigration with measures that restrict citizenship will not work. Instead, it risks alienating the plurality of people (43 per cent) who, according to Ipsos, believe that migrants who come to the UK to work should have the chance to settle and integrate, rather than being required to return home (25 per cent). 

Unintended consequences and policy risks

Both policies - Labour’s citizenship restrictions and the Conservatives’ ILR changes - carry serious risks. The Conservative plan on ILR, if it was to come to fruition, would leave many migrants unable to settle, even after years of working in the UK, creating huge instability for families, including those with British citizen children. Meanwhile, Labour’s citizenship restrictions will permanently disenfranchise and exclude refugees from full participation in society, entrenching social division over time.

If ILR restrictions lead to more people falling out of legal status, already stretched local councils will face higher demand for emergency support as more families are pushed into destitution. Extending the 10-year route may generate revenue through repeated visa fees, but it will also massively increase administrative burdens, legal challenges, and backlogs. Instead of focusing on reducing the asylum backlog and hotel use, the Home Office will divert resources toward managing an even more complex visa renewal system.

IPPR research has consistently shown that the public has little appetite for punitive citizenship policies. This is backed up by polling by British Future shows that fewer than one in ten support a 15-year wait for citizenship (made up of ten years of ILR plus an additional five-year wait for citizenship). Most people support a more inclusive, generous approach that allows people to contribute to society and their communities. 

A fairer approach is needed

Labour must reconsider its trajectory before reinforcing restrictive policies that will neither serve as an effective deterrent nor deliver political gain. There is no voter group that will be convinced that this approach alone will stop irregular migration, and at the same time, it weakens Labour’s ability to present a credible vision for citizenship, belonging, and community cohesion.

Instead of enforcing restrictive measures, Labour should build an immigration strategy rooted in fairness, contribution, and a shared sense of belonging. This approach should prioritise fair and transparent routes to citizenship, recognising the contribution of migrants not only aligns with public opinion but also strengthens social cohesion.

Avoiding policies that entrench exclusion is crucial. Instead of playing into narratives of exclusion, policymakers should focus on enabling people to contribute to their communities and the economy rather than creating division and instability. Labour has an opportunity to shape a cohesive society where everyone has a stake in the future. This means presenting a credible, long-term strategy for citizenship and settlement rather than reacting to short-term political pressures.

At a time when public confidence in the immigration system is shaped as much by perception as reality, a fair and transparent citizenship strategy is both good politics and good policy. Instead of participating in a race to the bottom, Labour has an opportunity to take a more constructive approach – one that strengthens, rather than fractures, our communities.