The long and short of it: Balancing short-term fixes and fixing the foundations

The year 2024 is undoubtedly the year of elections. But while some have been concerned that these elections across the world would usher in a wave of populism, the results have been more mixed. Some countries have seen populism checked or softened. India’s right-wing Hindu nationalist government saw surprise losses at the polls. Though effectively hand-picked as a successor to the left-wing populist ‘AMLO’, many expect Mexico’s Claudia Scheinbaum to be a more competent and pragmatic leader.

By contrast, closer to home, the political landscape is much less stable. France’s snap summer election only narrowly saw off Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. After their elections last November, the Netherlands formed a coalition in May this year which includes Geert Wilders’ explicitly antiimmigrant, anti-Muslim PVV as the largest party. Right wing populists’ have increased their seat share in the most recent European Parliamentary elections and the AfD’s influence in German politics remains concerningly strong. And then of course there are the US elections, near by impact if not by distance, which the world awaits with bated breath.

Amid the political restlessness of its closest neighbours and allies, the initial hope for some was that the Labour party’s victory at the UK general election would project an image of pragmatic centrism, a model of stability to the international community and to global markets. But recent events risk upsetting that impression.

The significance of this summer’s riots should not be over-interpreted. Polls show the overwhelming majority of the British public strongly opposed the waves of violence across the country and overwhelmingly support harsh sentences for the perpetrators. Even the populist agitators-in-chief of Farage and all those right-wing media outlets – whose voices, let us be explicit, helped to incubate this violence – realised they were on the wrong side of history and produced a string of near identical headlines condemning the behaviour.

But the events also cannot be ignored. Yes, the riots were primarily stirred up by far-right groups inventing, disseminating and exploiting misinformation spread by social media and amplified by Elon Musk. And yes, the fans were flamed by Nigel Farage and other far right political figures and social media influencers.

But to light a tinderbox there also needs to be kindling. Even if the British public overwhelmingly reject the rioting, polling also shows a greater sympathy with the anger that underpinned them. 14 years of cuts to public services, 14 years of economic stagnation, and 14 years that make people worse off than when they started has created widespread discontent. With the right-wing media embedding anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim hatred into British political discourse for the best part of 20 years, previous governments have been only too happy to divert attention away from their own economic failings. It is no surprise that there is such a strong correlation between the towns and cities where riots took place and the level of deprivation in those areas.

This political context is why Labour’s simple message, “Change”, was so consistently resonant with people at the general election. But, crucially, there is still a battle over what that change should look like. The extent to which Labour can enact its ‘decade of renewal’ will be determined by how quickly it is able to reassure a sceptical public of its competence. In fact, it is not even doubt over its competence specifically, but rather, the fading belief in the ability of any government to govern effectively – in the majority of the constituencies where rioting took place, voter turnout at the general election was below 50 per cent. And even if their tails are burnt from their association with the far-right violence of the summer, we can be sure that the populist right, emboldened, enabled and platformed by media cronies, will seize on any missteps, or indeed invent them, to try and sell their own poisonous narrative for change.

It is for this reason that Keir Starmer has so explicitly stressed the importance of delivery across all departments of government, with promising immediate actions such as lifting the ban on onshore wind and settling pay disputes with junior doctors within the very first weeks of forming a new government. Labour are under no illusion of the efficient but fragile nature of their vote share distribution. They are fully cognisant of the economic straight jacket that the previous government has left them in (even if some would point out it may be easier to escape from than they realise). And they are fully aware that the public will struggle to wait for a decade of renewal to bear fruit after 14 years of neglect.

In this issue, we set out the challenges the Labour government is likely to face on the already rocky road ahead, how it might set about balancing short-term delivery with longer-term (and hopefully longer lasting) fixes to the foundations, and what lessons it can learn from progressive governments around the world and indeed from its own history of being in power in the UK.

As this year of elections is showing, populism is a risk, but not an inevitability. To keep it at bay, the Labour government must make sure that in five years’ time it can point to a track record that shows the value of good governance.

Read the latest edition of Progressive Review here

Issue contents:

• Editorial / Joshua Emden
• Are demographics destiny? / Jim Blagden
• Financial precarity in English local government / Peter Eckersly
• Restoring public services / Gemma Tetlow
• Immigration and asylum / Zoe Gardner
• How to maintain public support and act quickly on climate policy / Josh Emden
• Beyond 'AI boosterism' / Karen Yeung
• The Treasury takeover / Sam Freedman
• All change? / Lisa James
• Crafting the conditions for renewal / Lise Butler
• Progressive realism / Olivia O'Sullivan
• Implementing an equitable industrial strategy / Joe Peck and Alí R Bustamante
• "Now go out and make me do it" / Matthew McGregor
• A new deal for workers / Melanie Simms