Press Story

IPPR has responded to today’s migration and asylum statistics from the Home Office, which reveal that:

The asylum backlog stood at around 91,000 cases at the end of December 2024, compared to around 97,000 in September – a 7 per cent fall. Decisions are sharply up, more than doubling in the final quarter of 2024 compared to the quarter before. The number of people in hotels, however, was at around 38,000 at the end of December, slightly higher than in September.
The asylum grant rate in 2024 was 47 per cent, compared to 67 per cent in 2023. According to the Home Office, this is due to the new standard of proof introduced by the 2022 Nationality and Borders Act, leading to more refusals. It is possible that many of these refusals could be overturned at appeal.
Small boat arrivals increased by 25 per cent to nearly 37,000 in 2024. The most common nationalities arriving in small boat in 2024 were Afghans, Syrians and Iranians. There was also a surge in arrivals from Yemen in the final quarter of the year.
There has been a sharp fall in health and care worker visas granted in 2024, an 81 per cent fall compared to 2023. This reflects a tightening of checks on these applications in the Home Office, as well as the new policy restricting people from bringing dependants.

Responding to the migration statistics, Marley Morris, IPPR associate director for migration, trade and communities, said:

“The latest figures reveal signs of progress in the asylum system. After a collapse in productivity in late spring last year, the number of decisions is now rising again and the backlog is on its way down.

“But this is not yet translated into a reduction in asylum claimants in hotels. If the Home Office wants to end the use of hotels, it will need to double down on efforts to improve the speed and quality of decision-making. Applications should be triaged early and decisions for high-grant nationalities should be streamlined. Crucially, the government must take care that its efforts to accelerate decision-making do not result in these cases simply shifting over into appeals. A giant appeals backlog could fatally undermine the government’s efforts to close asylum hotels. This means decision quality should be just as important as speed.

“Small boat arrivals were up 25 per cent in 2024, though this is still early days for the government’s plans to tackle people smuggling gangs. The most effective approach would combine their enforcement efforts with cooperation with Europe and reform of safe routes.

“Finally, numbers of health and care worker visas have fallen dramatically over the last year. This will have significant implications for the forthcoming net migration figures to be published in spring.”

ENDS

Marley Morris and Amreen Qureshi are available for interview

CONTACT

Liam Evans, Senior Digital and Media Officer: 07419 365334 l.evans@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society. We are researchers, communicators, and policy experts creating tangible progressive change, and turning bold ideas into common sense realities. Working across the UK, IPPR, IPPR North, and IPPR Scotland are deeply connected to the people of our nations and regions, and the issues our communities face. We have helped shape national conversations and progressive policy change for more than 30 years. From making the early case for the minimum wage and tackling regional inequality, to proposing a windfall tax on energy companies, IPPR’s research and policy work has put forward practical solutions for the crises facing society. www.ippr.org