Press Story

Phoebe Griffith, IPPR’s associate director for migration, integration and communities, commenting on today’s long-term immigration statistics from the ONS, said:

“Today’s figures suggest that Britain’s decision to leave the EU could start impacting on migration flows very soon. Within three months we have seen a marked change in the composition of EU migration – significant increases in the numbers of people coming from Romania and Bulgaria, alongside marked drops in the numbers coming from EU8 countries like Poland.

“Significant shifts in the composition of the migrant population coming to the UK will have considerable impacts on public services and the labour market. The Government needs to act now to deal with these changes to make sure that schools and health services are properly prepared including with the resources they need, and that UK employers are not hampered by labour shortages.”

Today’s figures show a complex picture; on the one hand, net migration of EU8 citizens (the 2004 Eastern European accession countries) has seen a statistically significant fall since the last year, suggesting some impacts from the EU referendum, perhaps as a result of the fall in the Pound and the shifting perceptions of the UK after the vote.

At the same time, the trend of increasing inward migration from Romania and Bulgaria continues, up to 74,000 in the year ending September 2016 from 55,000 in the year before, and the flows of EU15 citizens (from Western Europe) holds steady.

The figures also indicate a significant surge in grants of permanent residence to European Economic Area nationals (and non-EEA family members), more than doubling from 18,000 in 2015 to 65,000 in 2016, most likely as a result of concerns among migrants about their future status in the UK post-Brexit. This we expect will be accompanied by a large backlog in permanent residence applications currently being processed at the Home Office, which will be revealed in data published later today.

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Contact

Kieren Walters 07921 403651 k.walters@ippr.org
Rebecca Malone 07585 772633 r.malone@ippr.org

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