Press Story

Over the next two decades, the number of people aged over 80 is set to double in Britain, according to a new report published today by the think tank IPPR. In London, the number of people over the age of 80 is estimated to rise by 40 per cent over the next 30 years, reaching 350,000 by 2031 (a breakdown by borough is available from IPPR).

The report highlights the scale of the challenge because of Britain's aging population.

Nationally, more than 1 million older people say they feel trapped in their own home and that just under half of those aged over 55 cannot walk to their nearest GP surgery. But IPPR's report shows that older people in London could face the worst social isolation: Currently at least 75,000 people over 75 years old are living lonely lives in London.

IPPR's report argues that, in the absence of a Strategic Health Authority for London, the GLA should be responsible for overseeing the health and care systems across the city in order to prevent a fragmented market developing across council boundaries. The report also argues that "75 is the new 65" and that a simple but blunt way of targeting those most at risk could be to focus on the 'over 75' age group rather than the 'over 65' group as, most programmes and benefits currently do.

The report shows that:

Almost one in five (18 per cent) over 75 year olds say they 'felt lonely much of the time during the past week', compared with just over one in ten (11.8 per cent) of 65-74 year olds who suffer such social isolation.
More than a quarter (25.6 per cent) of 65-74 years olds live alone, but almost half (44.5 per cent) of over 75s live alone.
Just 2.3 per cent of 65-74 year olds never use public transport and do not have access to a car, but more than one in ten (13.3 per cent) live without transport.
The report says that social isolation could be worse in London, where more live alone, suffer from poverty and lack support from their families.

The report argues that older people living in London are more likely to require home-based care services because they are more likely to live alone, lack support from their families and suffer from poverty. The report says that for home-based care to be of a good quality, it needs to be provided by a familiar care worker who is able to meet the individual needs of the person using care. High staff turnover rates in London and employees on temporary contracts mean that older people rarely benefit from consistency in their care workers. More than one in ten (10.3 per cent) of care workers in London are on temporary contracts, more than twice the national average (4.3 per cent).

Nick Pearce, IPPR Director, said:

"Older Londoners are more likely to live alone, suffer from poverty and lack support from their families compared to older people in other areas of the country. The city also faces high rates of population churn, a complex infrastructure and a reliance on migrant workers - which adds to the challenge of designing effective public services.

"For too many people, growing older is a journey of loss - losing work, mobility and friendships. Changes in kinship patterns mean that there are fewer people in each generation of a family and they are more likely to be geographically dispersed. The growth of new technology has both enabled people to keep in touch over longer distances, but also reduced the need for more meaningful 'face to face' contact.

"A reliance on the car and the withdrawal of local shops and services has also reduced the number of chance encounters that older people have in their neighbourhoods. And the decline of formal membership organisations and the shift to online services has reduced the number of institutions in which people interact."

The report says:

It is the 'over 90' population that is growing particularly strongly. While the number of Londoners aged over 65 is expected to increase by 33% over the next twenty years, the number of Londoners over the age of 90 is expected to increase by 95%. By 2031 there will be almost 100,000 Londoners who are aged over 90.

There is a larger rise in ageing among London's ethnic minority populations. While the white over-80 population is expected to rise by just under a third between 2011 and 2031, the size of the ethnic minority population who are over 80 is projected to almost triple over the same period, rising from 28,600 to 80,000. This means that by 2031 ethnic minorities are expected to make up around a quarter of the over-80 population in London, compared to just 12 per cent in 2011.

The gap in life expectancy between men and women is narrowing. There will continue to be more women than men over 80 years old - but this gap is narrowing. The number of men aged 80 and over living in the capital is projected to increase by more than 50 per cent, compared to an increase of less than a third among women. The female population is projected to be 207,800 in 2031, up from 160,400 in 2011, while these figures for males are 144,500 and 95,122 respectively.

Population ageing varies across the London boroughs. While all London boroughs will experience a rise in the proportion of their residents who are over the age of 80, the outer London boroughs are projected to have the highest proportions of older people.

The services available to older people vary across the London boroughs. Because social care is commissioned by local authorities, there is variation between the services that are available across London. This is clearly seen in rates of home-based care. In Waltham Forest, for example, 6.2% of older people are supported to live independently, whereas in Westminster 17.1% of older people are supported to live independently.

The context for ageing differs from other parts of the country

London provides a unique context for designing services for older people. The care workforce is very different, with a far higher turnover of staff, a greater reliance on migrant workers, and twice the proportion of staff on temporary contracts than in other regions.

Notes to Editors

IPPR's new report - Social Isolation among older Londoners - will be available at

http://www.ippr.org/publication/2

All statistics in this release are for England, unless otherwise specified.

The latest wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) found that 18 per cent of people over the age of 75 'felt lonely much of the time during the past week'. While ELSA does not provide a regional breakdown of data, if the national average were applied to London it would suggest that the capital has 75,960 people over age 75 that feel lonely most of the time.

Kings Fund has estimated that local authorities face a shortfall of £1.2 billion in social care funding over the next four years. Age UK has estimated that 165,000 older people in London alone are unable to access the care support they need, prompting fears of a costly 'bed blocking' crisis in the NHS.

There are currently around 700,000 people in England with dementia. Due to the population ageing, the number of people with dementia is set to double to 1.4 million in the next 30 years. Recent estimates suggest that around 65,000 people over the age of 65 in London have dementia, including around 1,600 people with early-onset and 63,000 people with late-onset dementia. Projections suggest that the number of people over 80 in London with dementia can be expected to rise by almost 50 per cent to 96,000 by 2030.

Just 31 per cent of the capital's GPs believe they have received sufficient basic and post-qualification training to diagnose and manage dementia. Older people with dementia occupy 20 per cent of acute hospital beds across England, when in fact around 70 per cent of these may be medically fit to be discharged.

IPPR argues that:

Planning loop holes need to be closed that allow essential local services to change use without planning permission. Essential services such as banks and post offices should be given their own category within the 'A' use class, and it should not be possible to automatically change use outside of this class. Any change of use would therefore be subject to planning permission.
London Boroughs should initiate information sharing agreements between a wide variety of services - employment, housing, health, care, benefits and leisure - in order to ensure older people are referred between different services.
Voluntary and community groups should offer training packages to GPs, to provide an insight into local needs and services.
GPs should issue 'information prescriptions' to ensure people are channelled towards the relevant advice.
Embedding advice services in surgeries will help GPs to signpost patients towards services provided by local authorities and the third sector. This would provide a much needed link between health and care services.

Contact

Tim Finch, 07595 920899, t.finch@ippr.org