Press Story

Immigrant numbers are likely to drop in 2012, the leading think tank IPPR predicts in a new briefing, but provisional estimates suggest that net migration (the difference between those coming and those leaving) will be around 180,000 in 2012 - a long way from the 'tens of thousands' the government is aiming for.

IPPR also warns that the cap on immigration, which has led to curbs on skilled migration from outside the EU and cuts in overseas student numbers, could be a drag on economic recovery when demand for labour picks up.

IPPR's annual Migration Review briefing looks ahead to 2012 and anticipates a number of key developments

A fall in non-EU immigration of around 10 per cent.
A relatively small reduction in EU immigration and an increase in emigration due to continuing economic stagnation in the UK
A tightening in the salary threshold governing people admitted to the UK on Intra-Company transfers
Further curbs on skilled migrant entry, including ICTs, reducing entrants by around 10,000 per year
Further reductions in the number of non-EU students admitted to study in the UK
Planned curbs on family migration likely to face court challenges which will delay impact of changes
Little change in the low overall emigration rate which has dropped substantially since 2008
The introduction of £35,000 income threshold for migrants wishing to settle in the UK which could deter highly skilled migrants
Asylum claims to remain stable at around 20,000
Confirmation that the number of Foreign National Prisoners being returned has fallen in 2011
Based on provisional estimates, a drop in net migration, which was just over 250,000 in 2010, to approximately 220,000 in 2011 and 180,000 in 2012

IPPR argues that the drop in numbers - which is a long way from meeting the Conservative's election pledge - will partly result from the increased restrictions and controls which the government has put in place. But they will also reflect the continuing poor performance of the UK economy which has reduced the demand for migrant labour and made the UK less attractive to migrants.

IPPR Associate Director for UK Migration, Matt Cavanagh said:

"Changes in immigration policy are slow to take effect, but 2012 will be a crucial year for coalition ministers, as they move towards the half-way mark of the Parliament. They will be reassured by surveys showing that the public strongly support their aim of reducing immigration, but worried by other surveys showing equally strong doubts that they will deliver this, and very mixed support at the level of detailed policies.

"IPPR's look-ahead to trends and policy developments in 2012 suggests that, while policy changes will start to achieve significant reductions in immigration from outside the EU, this will not be enough to put the government on track to hit its target. In fact their best hope of doing so, perversely, would be if an economic downturn reduced immigration, and increased emigration of EU migrants already here."

Notes to editors

IPPR's Migration Review 2011/2012 is available at http://www.ippr.org/publications/55/8431/migration-review-20112012

Contacts:

Tim Finch: 07595 920 899 / t.finch@ippr.org

Richard Darlington: 07525 481 602 / r.darlington@ippr.org