Press Story

Net migration will fall to around 140,000 next year, according to new statistical analysis from the think tank IPPR. This follows a fall of over 25% in the year to March 2012, but analysis suggests that net migration will begin to rise again in 2014, although final figures for that year will not be available until after the 2015 General Election

IPPR says official figures released in 2013 are likely to show that immigration fell further in the second half of 2012, driven by a combination of policy changes (especially on non-EU students) and continuing tough economic conditions. IPPR expects these trends to continue into 2013. IPPR says that while these falls in net migration would be significant, they would still leave the Government some way from meeting their target.

IPPR expects 2013 to see:

Further significant falls in non-EU student immigration
Continued steady declines in non-EU immigration for work and family reasons
A modest increase in immigration from the EU
A small increase in asylum claims
Rising net emigration by UK nationals, and modest increases in emigration by non-EU nationals

IPPR says the most significant impact on the migration numbers will come from the changes that have already been implemented in the student visa regime, but says the effect on net migration is likely to be short-lived. Luckily for the Government, the period when this effect is likely to be most obvious in the migration data is 2013-14, which is well-timed for a 2015 General Election.

Sarah Mulley, Associate Director at IPPR, said:

"Although net migration will fall next year, the Government is fast running out of options for further restricting non-EU immigration in any significant way. This may leave future progress against the net migration target dependent on patterns EU migration and emigration, both of which are unpredictable and largely outside government control.

"The net migration target is leading to bad policy decisions. It is keeping out migrants who make a significant economic contribution and are not the focus of public concerns.

"The next two years will show the limits of government action on net migration as the Government runs out of ways to significantly reduce numbers further. All in all, it's time we moved the debate away from the net migration target, and onto integration, the impacts of migration on housing, work, and public services; better cooperation at the European and international levels; and local responses to immigration."

Notes to Editors

IPPR's new briefing note - Migration Review 2012/13 - will be available from: http://www.ippr.org/publication/55/10111/migration-review-201213

Migration predictions are not an exact science - IPPR's predictions are based on the latest ONS and Home Office statistics, predictions of future policy developments and impacts, expectations of economic trends, and IPPR's own analysis.

The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills estimated the total value of UK education exports to be £14.7 billion in 2010.

IPPR's report on student visas is available at:

http://www.ippr.org/publication/55/8997/international-students-and-net-migration-in-the-uk

Contact

Dec 22- 29: Richard Darlington, 07525 481 602, r.darlington@ippr.org

Dec 30 - Jan 1: Tim Finch, 07595 920 899, t.finch@ippr.org