Press Story

The poll - carried out by YouGov - showed 45 per cent of participants saying they would vote 'yes' on 5 May - 12 points ahead of those who say they will vote 'no'.

The question on the ballot paper was asked after people had participated in a 'mock AV ballot'. This is the first national poll to ask the public in this way. The full results were:

Yes: 45 per cent
No: 33 per cent
Don't know: 17 per cent
Would not say: 6 per cent

The average of the 12 major polls since the turn of the year has been:

Yes: 36 per cent approx
No: 31 per cent approx
Don't know: 29 per cent approx
Would not say: 4 per cent approx

The new poll, which questioned 2,199 adults, found that the strength of support for AV varies significantly depending on stated party loyalty. Eighty-five per cent of Liberal Democrat voters say they'll vote 'yes', but only 31 per cent of Conservative voters will do so. A majority of Labour voters (52 per cent) say they will be voting for a switch to AV, with 31 per cent voting 'no' and 14 per cent still undecided.

The opinion poll also showed that 59 per cent of participants said they found AV either 'fairly' or 'very easy' to understand, suggesting that the alleged complexity of the system compared with FPTP is overstated. Thirty-one per cent said they would find AV either 'very difficult' (13 per cent) or 'fairly difficult' (18 per cent).

The survey - conducted for a forthcoming research report by ippr due to published next Monday (18 April) - is the first to give participants the chance to take part in a mock AV ballot, using their alternative preferences. It also asked people a number of detailed questions about their understanding of electoral systems and their concerns about the strengths and weaknesses of these systems.

The findings from the mock AV ballot showed that the Liberal Democrats are likely to pick up most second preferences (23 per cent). More than a third of Conservatives (34 per cent) would pick the Liberal Democrats as their second preference, with a similar percentage of Liberal Democrats (37 per cent) reciprocating. Other parties like the Greens (17 per cent) and UKIP (13 per cent) would attract significant second preference support as well. The BNP only pick up 3 per cent of second preferences.

In the mock AV ballot, there was strong use of preferences in the early stages

78 per cent of participants used their second preference
57 per cent their third preference

After the second and third round, the use of preferences declined markedly, with around two-thirds of participants not giving one at the fourth stage and thereafter.

There is almost an even split between people who thought the AV system was more democratic (because it means that the eventual winner has more popular support in some form than any other candidate) or less democratic (because the candidate with the most first preferences may sometimes lose once a range of voters' preferences are taken into consideration). The split was 39 per cent to 41 per cent.

Nick Pearce, ippr Director, said:

'This poll appears to show that when people engage with AV and are given a chance to try out the system of voting preferences, their support for change grows. It also shows that people can readily understand how AV works and don't find it too complex.
'When asked to name second preferences, the electorate's new pluralism emerges quite clearly, with strong support for the Greens and UKIP, as well as the Liberal Democrats. But voters have mixed views about whether AV is a more democratic electoral system.
'With three weeks to go before the referendum, both the Yes and No campaigns need to engage seriously with the electorate so that voters are well informed about the options when they make their choice on May 5th.'

Notes to editors

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov plc. The total sample size was 2,199 adults and fieldwork was undertaken between 6 and 7 April 2011. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).

Contacts

Tamsin Crimmens: 07800 742 262 / t.crimmens@ippr.org

Richard Darlington: 07525 481 602 / r.darlington@ippr.org

Tim Finch: 07595 920 899 / t.finch@ippr.org