Press Story

UK food, energy and economic security threatened by climate shocks and their chaotic consequences

Security threats are escalating: evidence suggests 45 per cent chance of a tipping point in the Atlantic being triggered this century, putting UK at significant risk

Yet government’s national risk register does not adequately consider climate threats and is badly unprepared, with worrying similarities to situation prior to Covid, say experts

An assessment of climate threats to UK national security has highlighted climate tipping points as a severely overlooked danger, according to a new report from the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR), Chatham House, the University of Exeter, and the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative.

The researchers drew parallels with the Covid-19 pandemic, highlighting that national security threats can stem from non-hostile actions – like climate change – and not just from malicious intent, like wars and terrorism.

The authors of the report say the government has a blind spot: major climate threats are not adequately addressed in its national risk register or other security assessments and planning processes, while some threats – like dangerous climate tipping points – are not included at all. Climate change is not considered a key national security issue, something which the report urges the government to change.

The report points to the fact that climate change is already playing a significant role in several threats to UK national security, including threats to energy security, threats to public health, and threats to food supplies. These will only get worse, particularly as the world is expected to soon breach the international goal of keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5C.

An urgent threat that is rapidly evolving is the risk that climate tipping points are triggered. These are moments when parts of the climate system can no longer cope with the stress being inflicted by human action and abruptly break down. Tipping points in the Atlantic Ocean pose particular threats to the UK. The report finds evidence that suggests up to a 45 per cent chance of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) collapsing this century and happening as early as 2040, if not before. Such an event could destabilise national and global security.

The SPG is a northern component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of rotating ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean that plays a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate.

Consequences of the SPG collapsing – triggered by melting Arctic ice – could include fundamental changes to the UK’s weather; creating more extreme weather patterns with hotter summers and colder winters; impacting the ability to farm and grow crops; and damaging infrastructure and public health.

After being triggered, the collapse of the SPG could happen within 10 years, if not less.

The UK would be one of the worst affected countries due to its geographic position in relation to the North Atlantic. The next hardest hit would be the UK’s key trading partners. Yet these threats have not been properly assessed by previous governments, something the report urges the new government to address.

Even more concerning than the SPG collapse would be the breakdown of the entire AMOC, which would effectively wipe out crop growing in the UK and severely damage the global food system.

The report says this would create unmanageable outcomes for economic stability, geopolitical cohesion, and all other parts of society. The breakdown of the AMOC this century cannot be ruled out without urgent international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The authors say the government must learn from the mistakes of the Covid-19 pandemic, specifically the UK’s lack of preparedness. The report recommends that the government undertakes a rapid national security risk assessment of climate change, to identify the most critical threats and develop options to manage the risks better. The report also suggests that the government:

Uses the upcoming review of national resilience and the ongoing Strategic Defence Review to put climate risks at the heart of its national resilience and security plans

Creates an independent Centre for Climate and Nature Security to improve the UK security community's understanding of climate and nature threats and develop better early-warning systems for major threats

Acts on the UK Covid-19 inquiry’s recommendations for rebooting UK preparedness for, and resilience, to emergencies

Laurie Laybourn, associate fellow at IPPR and lead author of the report, said:

“Climate change isn’t just an ‘environmental’ issue. It already poses severe threats to our security. This is not widely appreciated. But like Covid, severe climate impacts can come out of nowhere, with effects that cascade across society, creating a bigger overall problem than the sum of its individual parts.

“Previous governments did not adequately address climate change in their national security assessment and planning. The UK is poorly adapted even to current climate threats. The echoes with the situation prior to the pandemic are uncanny and worrying. But the consequences could be far greater.

“The new government has an opportunity to learn the lessons from our unpreparedness for the pandemic. It should undertake a rapid national security risk assessment to analyse key climate threats to security, and develop plans to better prevent and mitigate the consequences.”

Professor Timothy M. Lenton, Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science, University of Exeter, and co-author of the report, said:

“We need a policy tipping point to better prepare us for the risks from climate tipping points. For too long we have treated climate change as if it were some slow-burning long-term issue that will only really hurt our children or people living elsewhere. We show that climate tipping points can unfold fast and soon, hit the UK and our allies hard, and that we are woefully underprepared for that. Now is the time to act to get prepared.”

The Rt Hon Lord Alok Sharma KCMG, President of the COP26 climate conference, and former secretary of state, said:

“Having called last year for the then government to urgently establish an independent Centre for Climate Security, modelled on the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, I welcome this timely report which reinforces the call for an independent Centre for Climate and Nature Security.  I very much hope that the new government will consider the proposals in this report carefully and act on the key recommendations.”

Lieutenant General (ret) Richard Nugee CB CVO CBE, Chair of the Secretariat Advisory Board to the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Climate and Security, said:

“This timely and important report outlines the dangers that climate change could cause to the UK’s national security, and offers immediate actions to understand and counter the risks. 

“I strongly agree that the UK needs an independent Centre for Climate and Nature Security, to inform and help Government navigate through the complexity of the multiple diverse, interacting and mounting risks this country is likely to face.”

Emma Howard Boyd CBE, chair of the London Resilience Review and former chair of the Environment Agency, said:

“Weather events like storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts have impacts across the whole of government, not just the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The centre of government must take a grip on the complex nature and interconnectedness of so many of the climate hazards that we face.

“Module 1 of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry says it is 'the state’s duty to ensure that the UK is as properly prepared to meet threats from a lethal disease as it is from a hostile force. Both are threats to national security.' This report shows government is not affording climate risks the appropriate duty of care.  It's time a Cabinet Office Minister was tasked with bringing a whole systems approach to climate resilience.”

Rear Admiral (ret) Neil Morisetti CB, former UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change, said:

“The impact of a changing climate is already affecting our prosperity and wellbeing; our national security. Both the onset of long-term trends and extreme weather events are increasing the risks posed by traditional and non-traditional threats.

“This report highlights some of those risks and, more importantly, identifies what needs to be done if we are to better understand and manage them as an integral part of our National Security Strategy; action that needs to be taken now.”

Professor Sir Ian Boyd FRS, former Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government on Food and the Environment, and current Chair of the UK Research Integrity Office and President of the Royal Society of Biology, said:

“Why is the UK national debt currently at a crippling level? This is because we have failed to insure ourselves against risks which have materialised as a sequence of recent crises. This is not bad luck; it is bad planning. The UK prides itself in its scientific prowess but makes precious little use of our knowledge to build mechanisms to achieve national resilience.

“This important report highlights these problems. It contains a warning that unless we become much more serious about responding to climate change, existential economic challenges will continue and most probably worsen. It says that we must solve these problems by improving the National Security Risk Assessment, and then we need to take it seriously. I wholeheartedly agree.”

ENDS

Laurie Laybourn is available for interview

CONTACT

Liam Evans, Senior Digital and Media Officer: 07419 365334 l.evans@ippr.org

David Wastell, Director of News and Communications: 07921 403651 d.wastell@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

The IPPR paper, The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security by Laurie Laybourn et al, will be published at 00:01 on Wednesday 9 October 2024. It will be available for download at: http://www.ippr.org/research/publications/the-security-blind-spot
Advance copies of the report are available under embargo on request
A recent global review identified SPG collapse as one of five tipping points at risk of being triggered under current levels of global warming (Lenton et al 2023). Using models that are best at simulating the SPG’s complex behaviour, peer reviewed academic studies have identified the chance of SPG collapse this century is estimated at between 36 and 45 per cent (Sgubin et al 2017; Swingedouw et al 2021). This could happen sooner rather than later, with collapse occurring as early as the 2040s in some models (Lenton et al 2023).
IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society. We are researchers, communicators, and policy experts creating tangible progressive change, and turning bold ideas into common sense realities. Working across the UK, IPPR, IPPR North, and IPPR Scotland are deeply connected to the people of our nations and regions, and the issues our communities face. We have helped shape national conversations and progressive policy change for more than 30 years. From making the early case for the minimum wage and tackling regional inequality, to proposing a windfall tax on energy companies, IPPR’s research and policy work has put forward practical solutions for the crises facing society. www.ippr.org