Voters want the government to put fixing public services ahead of balancing books, new polling finds

• The government must be "changemakers and not just bookkeepers" at Budget says leading progressive think tank

• If Labour keeps its promises on borrowing, tax and spending but fails to improve public services, it will be punished by voters, according to detailed polling for IPPR and Persuasion UK

• Voters who switched to Labour in 2024 are more likely to prioritise better services over keeping taxes and borrowing low

• Voters will back increases in borrowing and (some) tax rises even in the face of criticism that it is "anti business” and “the same old Labour”

Large-scale polling combined with in-depth message testing, designed and commissioned by Persuasion UK and IPPR, finds that it is not enough for the government to be ‘good book-keepers’ - it must also make tangible improvements to people’s lives to retain support.

The research, in the lead up to a Budget that will play a key part in determining the direction and tone of the new government, is the first detailed analysis of the tension between Labour’s two key pre-election promises: to ensure economic stability while also delivering change.

The analysis involved baseline polling of 4,000 people and randomised message testing of between 6,000 and 12,000 people, conducted in the field by YouGov. It finds that:

• Potential changes to borrowing (fiscal rules) and taxes (within Labour’s ‘tax rules’) to deliver on public services and other issues people care about are popular with voters.
• If the government succeeds in reducing debt and deficits but NHS waiting lists are unchanged it can expect to be much less popular among people who switched from another party to vote for Labour in the last election. This scenario achieved an approval rating of -12 which is a fall of 28 percentage points on today’s ratings.
• In a scenario where waiting lists are halved – even at the expense of debt or taxes rising – the government could be very popular with the same group of switchers. It would yield a +31% approval rating which is 15 percentage points higher than today. A similar trend is seen for people who voted Conservative previously but voted Labour in 2024.
• These scenarios were ‘stress tested’ via an industry gold standard Randomised Control Trial (RCT), in which a large sample of voters were split into six groups and exposed to different messages. The RCT found that aggressive attack messages did not damage Labour’s economic credibility with voters, and that most of the proposed policy measures are resilient to attack.
• Tangible progress on public services is rewarded even if it comes with unpopular trade offs (higher debt, deficit), while failure to improve public services is punished even if it comes with popular upsides (debt or deficit falling etc).

The findings support two key proposals put forward by IPPR ahead of the Budget:

• Changes to fiscal rules (see note below), which would enable the government to borrow more in order to increase investment to drive growth and better public services; and
• Tax rises on those with the broadest shoulders to raise additional revenue for public services.

IPPR has long argued for capital gains tax (CGT) to be raised to the same rate as income tax, so that those who receive income from wealth are taxed the same as those who earn income from work.

The research also suggests that the time is now ripe for the government to shift its narrative from “fixing the problems it has inherited from the last government" to one of “rebuilding the nation and fixing public services” - with the latter more likely to boost support for these measures,

Harry Quilter-Pinner, IPPR interim executive director, said:

"The budget is a high stakes moment for the new government. The choices they make now will shape the rest of the parliament and the record that they can present to the voters at the next election. Voters support the higher investment needed in infrastructure and public services to fix broken Britain - even if this means higher borrowing and taxes. They want the government to be changemakers, not just bookkeepers.”

Steve Akehurst, director of Persuasion UK, said:

“It's clear from this research that voters will not reward Labour simply for being good stewards of the economy. The public wants to see tangible improvements in essential services. Key parts of Labour's coalition do not necessarily like the idea of higher borrowing or tax, but they seem willing to forgive it as the price of improved services.”

Spokespeople available include:

• Harry Quilter-Pinner, IPPR interim executive director. Harry leads the organisation in all areas including its research, policy and political engagement.

• Steve Akehurst, director of Persuasion UK. Steve has spent his career working at the intersection of politics, policy and public attitudes, and was the first person to coin the term ‘Blue Wall’ in a UK context.
  

CONTACT 

Liam Evans, senior digital and media officer, 07419 365 334 l.evans@ippr.org

Lorna Greenwood, deputy director and head of communications, Persuasion UK: 07802865819 (via WhatsApp) lorna.greenwood@persuasionuk.org

NOTES TO EDITORS 

1. The IPPR and Persuasion article can be found here: https://www.ippr.org/articles/bookkeepers-or-changemakers-understanding-the-chancellors-choices-ahead-of-the-budget
2. Details of polling and method:
   1. Persuasion UK designed polling and message-testing in collaboration with IPPR, with all fieldwork conducted by YouGov over September and October 2024. This involved:
      1. A baseline survey of 4,000 UK voters
      2. A Randomised Control Trial (RCT) message testing experiment with 6,000 voters
      3. One split-sample experiment looking at ‘policy accumulation’, with 12,000 voters
      4. A final experiment testing different scenarios on government approval ratings, with 6,400 voters
      5. Samples were weighted to be nationally representative.
3. Recent related IPPR publications include:
   1. On why fiscal rules should be changed, beginning with an immediate switch to targeting ‘public sector net worth’ instead of debt alone: Budgeting better: How the UK could start to improve its fiscal framework and boost growthhttps://www.ippr.org/articles/budgeting-better
   2. On the case for raising CGT: Supporting the status quo: How the taxation of wealth in the UK grows regional divideshttps://www.ippr.org/articles/supporting-the-status-quo
   3. On the need to focus on long-term transformation to deliver the promised ‘decade of national renewal’: How to build a decade of national renewal: Five lessons from history https://www.ippr.org/articles/how-to-build-a-decade-of-national-renewal
4. Persuasion UK is a non-partisan, not-for-profit research initiative which aims to understand what's shaping public opinion on the issues that define British politics. We also study the way electoral battlegrounds are changing. https://persuasionuk.org
5. IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society. We are researchers, communicators, and policy experts creating tangible progressive change, and turning bold ideas into common sense realities. Working across the UK, IPPR, IPPR North, and IPPR Scotland are deeply connected to the people of our nations and regions, and the issues our communities face. We have helped shape national conversations and progressive policy change for more than 30 years. From making the early case for the minimum wage and tackling regional inequality, to proposing a windfall tax on energy companies, IPPR’s research and policy work has put forward practical solutions for the crises facing society. www.ippr.org